+3. m. How this works. March Madness is upon us, which means all kinds of betting and analytics predictions for games involving local teams Pitt, Penn State and West Virginia. IU (22-11) reached the. In two of three Finals games played so far, the Celtics have figured out a way to score incredibly efficiently against one of the NBA’s best half-court defenses: Golden State’s 91. 19, 2023 How Mikal Bridges Went From Supporting Player To Star By Jared Dubin Filed under NBA Playoffs Apr. The NBA. 5%. 0. 19, 2022 Where FiveThirtyEight And ESPN’s 2022-23 NBA Forecasts Agree — And Disagree By Neil Paine Filed under. Here are the standings based on 538's game-by-game predictions, from 10/18 and utilizing the RAPTOR ratings. Silver told FiveThirtyEight. The average window has remained open for only 2. com's pro basketball Relative Power Index. Circling back to the start of NBA Playoffs and the Lakers, what got me writing was noticing FiveThirtyEight’s divergence from the betting markets in their recent view of the Lakers’ playoff chances. 6. I feel like the average NBA fan doesn't trust Towns or Gobert or thinks the fit will be awkward. The latest tweets from @fivethirtyeightFiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. FiveThirtyEight NBA predictions for 2022-23. The NBA playoffs put even the most potent offenses to the test — particularly. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic. Schedule. Help came from all corners to beat the Nuggets on a night when their superstar, Nikola. Stats. He’s one of seven rookies in NBA history to average 2. 6 minutes per game. NBA futures, such as Championship odds, Award odds, and Conference and. 2015-16 NBA Predictions. com. FiveThirtyEight spoke with more than 25 people across the NBA, from league staffers in charge of data collection and use to front-office executives, to understand exactly how this referee-grading. Everton - Manchester United. Five Thirty-Eight sometimes referred to as 538, focuses on opinion poll analysis, politics, economics, and sports blogging. According to FiveThirtyEight, the Warriors have a 10% chance to win the NBA Finals, the worst mark out of the four teams remaining. jackson: Per NBA Advanced Stats, Golden State’s most-used playoff unit has been Curry, Thompson, Green, Wiggins and Looney, sporting a net rating of +17. The BPI is the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. 1,416. And the tenacious Knicks fan. After toppling Kevin Durant and the Brooklyn Nets in the first round of the NBAplayoffs, Tatum and. FiveThirtyEight. Over the past four seasons at SportsLine, Mike went 462-397 against the spread, returning $2,509 to $100 bettors (every play 1 unit). (. Stats. Design and development by Jay Boice. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and. If each party holds 50 seats after the 2022 election, Democrats will control the Senate. Download this data. )Nate Silver@natesilver538. Without Lopez on the court, the Bucks allow 113. Tottenham - Aston Villa. By Louis Zatzman. See the latest forecasts for the 2022-23 NBA season, based on player ratings, game schedule, playoff odds and in-game win probabilities. Jonathan Bachman / Getty Images. More specifically, our Value Ratings are generated by compiling the current statistics for each player, then comparing them against all other players of. The handwringing over whether Smart really is the best or most meaningful defender in the NBA has lately obscured the uncommonness of what he brings on that end. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Filed under NBA. 538: 8. 4% from the 3-point line. FiveThirtyEight lists their predictions for the entire NBA season to date. Standings. Statistical model by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. After Boston dispatched the Philadelphia 76ers in just four games,. This latest. View the profile of Los Angeles Lakers Power Forward Taurean Prince on ESPN. -3. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Find standings and the full 2023-24 season schedule. 11, 2023 Our New Live In-Game Win. “You need to get. The Details. DeMar DeRozan. Discover your next favorite sports podcast on ESPN. It is true that he falls short of. Only three teams have achieved them. Champ. Ditto Paul George and Kawhi Leonard of the Clippers ranking among this season’s best duos. NBA play-in possible matchups Western Conference. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. Design and development by Jay Boice. FiveThirtyEight's soccer predictions calculate each team's chances of winning each match and the league title across <x> leagues. 538. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about. Nate Silver founded and was the editor in chief of FiveThirtyEight. district-urbanization-index- 2022. Design and development by Jay Boice. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. Led by Willis Reed, Walt Frazier and Dave DeBusschere, the Knicks were 23-1 through Nov. It was an eye-popping output to help carry. good opponents (positive overall PPG diff. 57. 27. And with that in mind, we’re going to shake things up a bit with regard to FiveThirtyEight’s NBA Power Ratings. At various points in 2022, it has seemed like the NBA might once again belong to the 7-footer. Design and development by Allison McCann, Jay Boice and Aaron Bycoffe. 8, 2018 at 11:36 PM 2017-18 NBA Predictions 1,735. 5 blocks while shooting 53. 7 percent of shots to be converted when. Tommy Lloyd was very complementary of. 14 in defensive rating and were eliminated by the Boston Celtics in the second round of the 2022 NBA playoffs. 9 with. Miami’s saving grace? It so seldom. Conf. This one is a straight-up falsehood, sadly perpetuated by some media members in addition to casual fans. Download this data. 803. Repressed cases for the usual names will help Brown's path to All-NBA. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. 1% from the floor and 37. The. TheTrotters •. 0. September 18, 2023, 9:09 AM. 9 points, 6. They force us (and you) to think about the world probabilistically, rather than in absolutes. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT / GETTY IMAGES. Download this data. Clay's projections for the 2023 NFL season: Best, worst offenses and defenses, X factors and team rankings. 3. ESPN's NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. 467 points per possession coming off of these live-ball turnovers would have ranked second in the NBA during the regular season, according to Second Spectrum. 8. Galatasaray - Manchester United. FIVETHIRTYEIGHT. -0. NFL news. Allowing Williams to roam free as a help defender paid enormous dividends, given that he is one of the NBA’s best rim protectors. ’22-23 is wide open by recent NBA standards FiveThirtyEight’s preseason NBA title favorite and the eventual champion by season, plus the number of teams with. Teams. Visit ESPN for NBA live scores, video highlights and latest news. fivethirtyeight. Voter fatigue is a real thing, and heading into the 2022-23 NBA season, few prognosticators thought JokiÄÐ â ¡ could be even better than he was in his first two award-winning seasons. Playoff odds, player & team stats tooCheckout the latest stats of Jarred Vanderbilt. EPL 2023/24 LIVE. By Ben Dowsett Filed under NBA Playoffs Apr. Statistical models by Jay Boice and Nate Silver. 91 years, though, and the average. 1) and Paul Pierce (No. 4 ranked 11th among players with at least 200 attempts. election-forecasts- 2022. Download this data. We then run our full NBA forecast with the new lineups to produce updated win totals and playoff probabilities. How LeBron James Broke An NBA Record That Was Once Considered Unbreakable. Teams. The West is 43-37 (. 8 and the All-Star break to finish the first half of the season with a 38-21 record, tying them with the Miami Heat for the best mark in the Eastern Conference. 4 seed in the Midwest Region and open their 2023 NCAA tournament run at 9:55 p. More. +2. Season. Must be 21+. Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III ), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO. 2 — and presumably has a number of good years left in the tank, especially if he plays into. Why our politics are stuck in 2016 | FiveThirtyEight Politics Podcast. 1 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100% Trump DeSantis Haley Ramaswamy Nov. He is the founder of FiveThirtyEight, and held the position of editor-in-chief there, along with being a special correspondent for ABC News. Win. The Knicks Peaked A Long Time Ago. 76%. 9 billion in basketball-related earnings. For the fourth time in eight seasons, the Golden State Warriors are NBA champions. FiveThirtyEight's 2019 NFL forecast uses an Elo-based model to calculate each team's chances of. Prior to the break, Wiggins’s 3-point percentage of 41. Nov. Design and development by Jay Boice. The Beam Team put an end to. 3). How this works: Our model uses the College Football Playoff selection committee’s past behavior and an Elo rating-based system to anticipate how the committee will rank teams and ultimately choose playoff contestants, accounting for factors that include record, strength of schedule, conference championships won and head-to-head results. 9% last season. FiveThirtyEight’s forecast of 27% means a. Detail-oriented readers may see something. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. FiveThirtyEight uses statistical analysis - hard numbers - to tell compelling stories about elections, politics and American society. . NFL $30K Black Friday Baller. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. (The best record in NBA history through 20 games for a team that missed the playoffs belonged to the 2010-11 Jazz, who started 15-5. The Deluxe version of our model simulates the election 40,000 times to see which party wins the House most often. 2020-21 NBA Player Projections Powered by FiveThirtyEight's RAPTOR player ratings Our projection system identifies similar players throughout NBA history. Almost exactly a year after shipping James Harden. Design and development by Jay Boice, Reuben Fischer-Baum and Julia Wolfe. 25 have been removed because they mistakenly attributed the Commissioner's Cup final played between the Seattle Storm and Connecticut Sun as a regular-season game. 04 percent from the regular season to the playoffs over the past 10 years — and has actually gone up in. The draft consisted of 58 picks instead of the typical 60 due to the loss of a second-round pick for both the Chicago Bulls and the Philadelphia 76ers for violating the NBA's tampering. Live scores for every 2023-24 NBA season game on ESPN. For the second consecutive season, the Brooklyn Nets made a league-shaking deal at the NBA trade deadline. In the early stages of the NBA playoffs in April, FiveThirtyEight had the Boston Celtics as its favorite to win the championship. Teams . 26, 2022, at 11:45 AM. Apr. 2m. At FiveThirtyEight, we’ve been running NBA predictions since 2015. A. . To start the third quarter of Monday’s Game 5 against the Golden State Warriors, the Boston Celtics’ Jaylen Brown had made two trips to the free-throw. The best defender according to DRAYMOND is Draymond. Being almost the best player in the NBA is a far cry from being the best. UK Office. At -460 the markets had an implied probability of the Lakers making the playoffs of ~82% 12. The Boston Celtics are still at the top spot to win the 2024 title with +375 odds. 538 uses statistical analysis — hard numbers — to tell compelling stories about elections, politics, economics, and American society. Boston has outscored opponents by 10. The NBA playoffs are almost here, with the play-in tournament tipping off later tonight. Catchall wrote:I guarantee you 538 hasn't actually looked at the Jazz. -0. The bottom three teams are relegated. March Madness is a special time of year for college basketball. But while the regular season was careening toward a dramatic. 32%. r/fivethirtyeight: Nate Silver's FiveThirtyEight delivers analysis of politics from campaign fundraising to election day and beyond. Wins above replacement projections are based on a combination of regular-season and playoff performances. Apr. FiveThirtyEight's 2021-22 NHL forecast predicts the winner of each hockey game and calculates each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the Stanley Cup. +1. Design and development by Ryan Best, Aaron Bycoffe, Holly Fuong, Christopher Groskopf, Ritchie King, Ella Koeze, Dhrumil Mehta, Jasmine Mithani, Mary Radcliffe, Anna Wiederkehr and Julia Wolfe. +1. The NBA has undergone dramatic and rapid evolution in the past few years, resulting in 2021-22 recording the second-highest offensive rating since the stat was first calculated in 1973-74. NHL. 12 hours ago · Germany is the only major economy expected to shrink this year, according to the International Monetary Fund, which foresees a decline of 0. As of Oct. Compare the ratings. This is probably not what people were expecting in several cases so I thought I'd see what we think about this. 21, 2023 leader Trump Trump 60. 2,313. 064). 16 % of your bankroll. Data for FiveThirtyEight's previous favorability, presidential approval and national 2024 Republican primary averages is available for download here. The favorites: Obviously, the Warriors are big favorites to win the West for a fifth straight season, with a 61 percent chance of returning to the NBA Finals yet again. After setting a career high with a 15 percent usage rate last season with Phoenix, Bridges saw that figure rise to 19. The very first one was pace: “Getting into your offense with 21 or 20 seconds on the shot clock,” Brown said, noting exactly the range where the drop-off has been steepest. 2 percent during his 56 games with the Suns prior to the trade (and to 24. Y. 11, 2023 Our New Live In-Game Win. 17. 3. Across the NBA, offensive rebounding outside garbage time has dropped by an average of 1. $22. The Phoenix Suns finished the regular season with the NBA’s best record, eight games better than the next closest team. Download this data. Look, 538 is backing up their (stupid, inaccurate, Klay Thompson-slandering) computer model, in a loyal but misguided attempt to. Spot illustration for FiveThirtyEight's NBA forecast page. This sample of 100 outcomes gives you an idea of the range of scenarios the model considers possible. The position of the flag indicates whether the organization is partisan. At the Las Vegas G League Showcase in December, the league went a step. The season begins Oct. For historical team ratings, see the Complete History Of MLB. It. The beam is lit. 64%. Dallas struggled to a 9-18 record after Irving first took the floor as a Maverick. . Kidd won an NBA title as a player with the Mavericks in 2011 and as an assistant coach with the Los Angeles Lakers in 2020. NBA players, like MLB players, improve on average through about age 27 and then. 27. This Lakers Season Was A Trainwreck — And There’s No Easy Way To Get Back On Track. Explore Data from FiveThirtyEightThat would be the highest opponent rate in NBA history, topping their own mark of 45. 6. 8m. 9m. They're also the NBA title favorite at many sportsbooks. FiveThirtyEight Illustration. The league also earned $8. Daily Lines. 7 percent) and third (49. (AP Photo/Matt. And it’s no shock to see Lakers superstar Anthony Davis in RAPTOR’s top 10. The Celtics are the Eastern Conference champions, and just as Nate Silver’s projections said, they had a 59 per cent chance of winning. New 538 articles can be found at. 9. Key betting periods include Christmas Day, trade deadline, All-Star Weekend, and the end-of-the-season playoff race. The Miami defense has bottled up Atlanta’s Trae Young. Sure. In 2013,. See the latest forecasts for the 2020-21 NBA playoffs based on RAPTOR player ratings and Elo ratings. All Teams Team Stats Historical Team Stats Team Ratings Team Traits. Bet on sports with live betting odds today! Join the online sports betting action at Bovada Sportsbook and claim your welcome bonus with card or crypto!FiveThirtyEight’s NBA forecast projects the winner of each game and predicts each team's chances of advancing to the playoffs and winning the NBA finals. Nathaniel Read Silver (born January 13, 1978) is an American statistician, writer, and poker player who analyzes baseball (see sabermetrics ), basketball, and elections (see psephology ). Elo ratings above 1800, which imply a team would be able to sustain at least a 67-15 record over the long term, are extremely rare. 1,021. * FiveThirtyEight's Career-Arc Regression Model Estimator with Local Optimization (CARMELO) is a system that forecasts a player‘s future performance. 12 to Aug. Design and development by Jay Boice. They’re the sixth-least-effective pick-and-roll team in the NBA, with lead guard Fred VanVleet ranking 21st in points per chance among 26 players who have run at least 1,500 pick and rolls. 9 with. 2 turnovers per contest in. The Knicks Peaked A Long Time Ago. Golden State Warriors guard Chris Paul (3) is fouled by Phoenix Suns forward Drew Eubanks (14) during the first half of an NBA basketball game, Wednesday, Nov. RPM Wins include the player's Real Plus-Minus and his number of possessions played. ’22-23 is wide open by recent NBA standards FiveThirtyEight’s preseason NBA title favorite and the eventual champion by season, plus the number of teams with at least 5 percent title odds. Since leaving the Cleveland Cavaliers (where he admittedly drained one of the most famous buckets in NBA history), Irving has managed 21. More NBA: Our. The very first one was pace: “Getting into your offense with 21 or 20 seconds on the shot clock,” Brown said, noting exactly the range where the drop-off has been steepest. . We would like to show you a description here but the site won’t allow us. Lopez ranked seventh (52. We created Elo. Players. Visit our live blog to follow along as results come in. pts. At -460 the markets had an implied probability of the Lakers making the playoffs of ~82% 12. 35. 4. By Jared Dubin and Neil Paine. Bills' Rapp (neck) exits in. Twice recently, Mike was nominated for Basketball. Horford is the only player on Boston’s roster with more than seven years of NBA experience, and he has been called upon in critical moments throughout these playoffs. 7. Build An NBA Contender With Our Roster-Shuffling Machine. 2. 972. 2026-27 is a player option. Accuracy scores are adjusted for the type of election polled, the poll’s sample size, the performance of other polls surveying the same race and other factors. Forecast from. Going into the playoffs, our NBA model wasn’t particularly high on the Dallas Mavericks’ chances of making a deep run. Democrats win. Filed under NBA. SEA on Thanksgiving Night! Join the DFS Baller with BIG top prizes! Enter Contest. Statistical model by Nate Silver, Jay Boice and Neil Paine. The. It’s Rough Out There In Dallas. Their sports section only has the NBA, which just has the Denver Nuggets winning the NBA Finals. vs. Myth No. We gave Dallas only a 37 percent chance o… While NBA players have recorded 126 total “star seasons” since 2013-14, only 11 coming off of a star season have been traded before the following season’s trade deadline. For most players, holding the ball and dribbling for long periods of time does not lead to points. Players. Hot Takedown. Just in time for the NBA’s free agent bonanza (headlined by LeBron James’s The Decision: Part III ), FiveThirtyEight has re-launched CARMELO. Democrats win. 5) are currently tied for the highest projection in the league, while oddsmakers have pegged the Washington Wizards (23. Per data provided to FiveThirtyEight by the NBA (as of Feb. 2026. Check out our NBA picks, MLB picks, and college football predictions while you're here, or see our best bets today across all major pro and college sports and the best sports betting sites in your state for the latest offers and promotions. 6 points per 100 possessions with White on the floor this season, per NBA Advanced Stats, tied with Robert Williams III for the best mark on the team. Season. +1. There is a lot of inside knowledge among NBA experts, as well as a lot of time and money invested into analysis. 0 points per 100 possessions, or the equivalent of the 10th-best defense in the league. FiveThirtyEight's MLB forecast uses a pitcher-adjusted Elo model to project the winner of every game and the chances that each team will win the World Series. 7 contenders, with a high of eight reached in both 2007-08 and 2020-21. We started with Elo ratings before introducing our CARMELO player projection system, which we. Cory Joseph. 8, 2022, at 12:22 AM. More. Updating average for each Republican candidate in 2024 primary polls, accounting for each poll's recency, sample size, methodology and house effects. Joe Robbins / Getty Images. FiveThirtyEight. Luka Donči. For NBA teams with the best points-per-game differentials in history through 51 games, split between PPG diff. 538. 11, 2023, at 6:00 AM. (Or maybe it just hates the Golden State Warriors. NBA Player Earnings An up-to-date look at the value rankings of all active NBA players based on a mathematical comparison of their current salary against their cumulative "production points". m. 162), ending.